After five years of commercial disputes, the United States is set to re-evaluate the countervailing duties imposed on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers, paving the way for a possible reduction or even elimination of the taxes established in 2021.
According to the specialized platform Discovery Alert, the U.S. Department of Commerce will launch a five-year review of the tariffs applied to imports of fertilizers from Morocco and Russia as early as March, in accordance with U.S. trade legislation. This procedure aims to determine whether the continuation of these measures remains economically and legally justified.
The review will focus on several key parameters: the evolution of trade flows, the existence or absence of injury to the U.S. industry, as well as the impact of the duties on supply chains, agricultural prices, and production costs. The process, which could last up to 360 days, may result in the maintenance, modification, or elimination of the current taxes.
For context, in March 2021, Washington imposed countervailing duties of 19.97% on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers following a complaint filed by the American company Mosaic, which accused Morocco of unfair public subsidies. Russian fertilizers were also targeted, with rates reaching 47.05% for certain producers.
A High Cost for American Agriculture
According to a study by the Center for Agricultural and Food Policy at the University of Texas, these measures have heavily impacted American farmers. Between 2021 and 2025, the rise in fertilizer prices is expected to generate an additional cost estimated at $6.9 billion, affecting the profitability of farms and the competitiveness of the agricultural sector.
Conversely, a reduction in the duties could help lower production costs, improve agricultural productivity, and stabilize prices in the U.S. domestic market. Such a shift would also have direct repercussions on the global phosphate trade, with Morocco remaining one of the main suppliers to the United States.
A Long-Running Tariff Battle
Despite this challenging context, the Moroccan group OCP has maintained its presence in the American market, demonstrating notable resilience against Mosaic’s repeated efforts. Since 2020, the American group has increased its appeals to federal authorities, seeking to consolidate a dominant position in the phosphate fertilizer market.
In November 2024, the Department of Commerce even raised the duties applied to OCP to 16.81% for the second time, a decision immediately contested by the Moroccan group. Several rulings made in 2023, however, challenged some initial calculations, deemed “unreasonable” by the American judiciary, leading to partial adjustments.
OCP argues that these taxes have contributed to creating supply tensions in the American market, jeopardizing food security. In 2024, Mosaic began to withdraw certain requests, while the Moroccan group continued its appeals to contest the economic and legal basis of the duties still in effect.
A Strategically Significant Issue
Beyond the commercial dispute, the announced review has a major strategic dimension. Morocco holds over 70% of the known global phosphate reserves, a mineral essential to global agriculture. Any modification of the U.S. customs regime will directly influence the balance of the international fertilizer market.
As Washington seeks to secure its supply chains and contain the volatility of agricultural prices, this reexamination appears as a decisive test between protectionist logic and economic rationality.