The entry into force, on January 1, 2026, of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) marks a decisive step for Moroccan exporters. From now on, any company wishing to access the European market must declare and, where necessary, offset the CO₂ emissions associated with its products. This new trade framework, presented by Brussels as a tool for climate equity, reshapes competitiveness conditions and imposes an ecological shift on several key sectors of the Moroccan economy.
The CBAM initially targets six carbon-intensive sectors: steel, aluminum, cement, nitrogen fertilizers, hydrogen, and electricity. For these activities, exporters are required to accurately document the carbon footprint of their production processes. When emissions exceed European standards, the company must purchase carbon certificates, currently priced between 60 and 100 euros per ton of CO₂, depending on the European carbon market.
According to the newspaper L’Économiste, this mechanism aims to level the playing field between European producers and their foreign competitors, while avoiding the phenomenon of “carbon leakage,” where industries relocate to countries with less stringent environmental standards. When the exporting country has a national carbon market but at a price lower than that of the European Union, the company must pay the difference.
A Differentiated Impact on Moroccan Sectors
In Morocco, exposure to the CBAM varies significantly across sectors. A study by BMCE Capital Global Research, cited by L’Économiste, estimates that more than 10% of Moroccan exports could be affected by 2026, representing a theoretical revenue loss risk of nearly six billion dirhams, based on 2024 figures.
Heavy industries appear relatively well-prepared. Steelmakers, aluminum producers, cement manufacturers, and electricity generators have already made decarbonization efforts. For instance, Sonasid produces low-carbon steel, even though only a marginal fraction of this production currently targets the European market.
In the hydrogen sector, commercial production remains in its infancy. Major projects, particularly led by OCP for green ammonia or by TotalEnergies in Guelmim, are not expected to come online until 2027. By leveraging renewable energy and desalinated water, these projects are designed to meet European carbon content requirements.
Nitrogen fertilizers, long identified as the most vulnerable segment to the carbon tax, are receiving special attention. Their high energy intensity necessitates rapid transformation of industrial processes to limit the financial impact of the CBAM.
Textile and Agri-Food Under Medium-Term Pressure
While the first phase of the CBAM concerns a limited number of sectors, its gradual extension poses a major challenge for the Moroccan economy. From 2027-2028, sectors such as textiles and agri-food are expected to be incorporated into the mechanism. However, these sectors, which are heavily geared towards European exports, have a relative lag in terms of decarbonization.
In textiles, some manufacturers in the north of the Kingdom have anticipated these requirements under direct pressure from European clients. In contrast, the agri-food sector faces structural challenges, particularly in reducing chemical inputs, optimizing energy use, and ensuring carbon traceability throughout the value chain, from agriculture to industrial processing.
Logistical infrastructures are not spared. Ports, especially Tanger Med, which is expected to maintain its status as a major transshipment hub, will need to align their operations with European climate standards to preserve their competitiveness in an increasingly regulated environment.
A Strong Signal for Future Competitiveness
For the European Union, the CBAM is also expected to generate revenues estimated at around three billion euros by 2030, a figure likely to increase with the expansion of the mechanism’s scope. However, beyond the budgetary aspect, the mechanism sends a clear signal to trading partners: access to the European market will now be conditioned on climatic performance.
For Morocco, this new framework represents both a constraint and an opportunity. The ability to combine economic competitiveness with ecological transition will become a determining factor in maintaining and growing exports. Without anticipation and investment in decarbonization, the carbon cost could erode margins and jeopardize access to one of the Kingdom’s main commercial outlets.