The global energy transition is entering a new phase, characterized by an accelerated electrification of uses. In a report published on February 6, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global electricity consumption is expected to grow at least 2.5 times faster than overall energy demand by 2030, confirming a gradual entry into what the Agency describes as the “era of electricity.”
According to IEA data, global electricity consumption reached 28,199 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025, a rise of about 3% from 2024, following a more robust growth of 4.4% the previous year. By 2030, this consumption could rise to 33,594 TWh, marking an increase of more than 19% over five years.
This growth is driven by several structural factors. The IEA specifically cites rising demand in the industrial sector, continued adoption of electric vehicles, increasing use of air conditioning, and the rapid expansion of data centers and applications related to artificial intelligence.
A Dynamic Driven by Asia-Pacific
The growth in electricity consumption is expected to be particularly pronounced in the Asia-Pacific region, with an average annual increase estimated at 4.7% from 2026 to 2030, nearly double that projected for Europe (+2.3% per year). China, already the world’s largest electricity consumer, could account for 36.4% of global demand by 2030, with projected consumption of 12,250 TWh.
However, the IEA emphasizes that this dynamic is not limited to emerging economies. After fifteen years of stagnation, electricity consumption in advanced economies is also on the rise and is expected to contribute about one-fifth of the total increase in global demand by 2030.
Renewables Making Strong Gains, but Coal Still Dominant
In terms of production, the year 2025 saw a record level of electricity generated from renewable sources, with an increase of 8.9%, primarily driven by photovoltaic solar energy. However, this growth was partially hindered by lower hydroelectric production in certain regions and unfavorable wind conditions, particularly in Europe.
Despite this progress, coal remains, in 2025, the primary source of electricity production worldwide, with 10,760 TWh, representing 33.6% of the global electricity mix. Renewable energies, across all sectors, nearly reached this level, totaling 10,734 TWh. Natural gas also remains a major source, providing 6,805 TWh (21.3% of the mix), far ahead of nuclear energy, which accounts for 2,850 TWh, or 8.9%.
Solar Expected to Play a Central Role
By 2030, the IEA anticipates a gradual evolution in the electricity mix. Coal production is expected to decline only slightly, at an average rate of –0.9% per year, while renewables could continue to grow rapidly at an annual rate close to 8.4%, with peaks of up to 20.9% in the Middle East.
Photovoltaic solar energy is expected to be the main driver of this growth. According to the Agency, renewable electricity production could increase by approximately 1,000 TWh per year until 2030, with solar alone accounting for over 600 TWh additional per year. Photovoltaic production is expected to surpass that of wind and nuclear by 2026, and then hydroelectric by 2029.
By that horizon, renewables could represent 42.4% of the global electricity mix, a share that could reach 50% when including nuclear. Nuclear production and that which comes from natural gas are also expected to grow, by 2.8% and 2.6% per year respectively, particularly driven by Asian markets.
Electrification Still Insufficient for Climate Goals
Despite these developments, the IEA warns of a gap between the rapid growth of electricity and climate objectives. Global CO₂ emissions related to electricity production are expected to continue rising, at an estimated rate of 1.1% per year, reaching about 632 million tons by 2030.
While the electrification of uses is progressing rapidly, driven by the development of solar, wind, and battery storage, the decrease in emissions from the electricity sector remains insufficient. Many experts, including climate economist Christian de Perthuis, believe that the current trajectory does not yet align the global electricity sector fully with the objectives of the Paris Agreement by 2030.
The IEA report thus highlights a central paradox of the energy transition: electricity is becoming the backbone of energy systems, but its decarbonization must accelerate much more to meet global climate challenges.
