Thailand risks losing between 7% and 14% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2050 if it does not take swift measures to adapt to the effects of climate change, warns a report from the World Bank.
The loss of productivity linked to heat will be the primary economic threat, impacting workers across all sectors. In Bangkok, each additional degree Celsius could cost up to $3.8 billion in deaths, lost productivity, and increased energy consumption, nearly 2% of the capital’s GDP.
The report also highlights that coastal erosion already affects 30% of Thailand’s coastline and could cost the tourism sector $1 billion per year by the mid-2040s, while water scarcity will worsen in several agricultural and industrial regions.
The World Bank estimates that $219 billion in investments will be necessary over the next 25 years to enhance climate resilience—an effort equivalent to 2.4% of cumulative GDP, yet with largely positive economic returns. These investments could increase the annual GDP by 4% to 5% by 2050, particularly through flood management, coastal protection, and cooling infrastructure projects.
The document also warns of transition risks if Thailand delays aligning its decarbonization efforts with those of its trading partners. Nearly 78% of multinational companies plan to exclude high carbon footprint suppliers by 2025, and mechanisms like the EU’s carbon border adjustment could impact Thai exports.
Reforming the electricity sector is deemed a priority to encourage competition in renewable energy, modernize the grid, and enhance regional integration. This transition could lower electricity costs and prevent more than 15,000 premature deaths each year due to improved air quality.
Thailand, set to host the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in 2026, is among the ten countries most exposed to flooding, a particularly high risk in the Chao Phraya basin, which hosts 40% of the population and contributes 66% of the national GDP.
MAP Ecology