The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights in its 2025 Global Energy Outlook report that renewable energies, driven by photovoltaic solar power, are growing faster than all other energy sources, despite some policy changes in the United States. According to the IEA’s median scenario, global oil demand could stabilize around 2030, while gas consumption will continue to rise throughout the 2030s.
The report, published on the occasion of COP30 in Belém, presents three scenarios for the global energy evolution: one based on current policies, a second aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, and a median scenario that takes into account measures already announced by states. Despite an expected 35% decline in renewable capacities in the United States by 2035 compared to 2024 forecasts, renewables continue their rapid global expansion, with China as the largest market and main producer, accounting for 45 to 60% of deployments in the coming decade.
According to the median scenario, coal demand will peak, while oil will stabilize around 2030. Gas, on the other hand, will continue to grow, partly due to U.S. policy and lower prices. The IEA clarifies that these scenarios are not forecasts, but rather illustrations of critical upcoming decisions, enabling governments and industry players to plan around issues of energy security, accessibility, competitiveness, and climate change.
The report also emphasizes two major challenges: universal access to energy, with 730 million people still living without electricity, and climate change. According to the IEA, all scenarios studied would lead to warming exceeding 1.5°C, with only the carbon neutrality scenario ultimately allowing for staying below that threshold. Furthermore, the energy sector must prepare for risks associated with higher temperatures: in 2023, over 200 million households experienced infrastructure malfunctions, primarily affecting electricity lines and networks.
In summary, the report confirms the rapid growth of renewables worldwide, the imminent stabilization of oil, and the necessity to ready the sector for upcoming climate and energy challenges.