In its latest monthly report published this Monday, OPEC has revised down its expectations for global oil demand growth for 2025. The organization now projects an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), compared to the 1.4 mb/d estimated the previous month. This revision is mainly due to the expected effects of the new tariffs imposed by the United States.
According to the cartel, global consumption will thus reach 105.05 mb/d in 2025, after being established at 103.75 mb/d in 2024. The slowdown is attributed to less dynamic data than anticipated in the first quarter and a geopolitical context that weighs on trade exchanges.
Erratic Growth
The evolution of demand is expected to experience fluctuations throughout the year. After a strong start (+1.3 mb/d in the first quarter), the second quarter is expected to see a slowdown (+1.1 mb/d), followed by a rebound in the third quarter (+1.5 mb/d) and more moderate growth at the end of the year (+1.3 mb/d), still on a year-on-year comparison.
The overall increase will mainly be driven by emerging economies, particularly China and India. In contrast, OECD member countries are expected to show demand under pressure, affected by the new American protectionist measures.
Pressure on Demand in the OECD
According to the report, the OECD Americas region could see a decrease of 70,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025 compared to 2024. In Europe, the decline is estimated at 20,000 barrels per day. The Asia-Pacific region, on the other hand, is expected to remain stable.
However, a rebound is anticipated in the second half of the year, mainly in the third quarter.
Same Trend for 2026
OPEC applies the same adjustment for the following year. The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 has been revised down from 1.4 to 1.3 mb/d. Total consumption is expected to reach 106.33 mb/d, compared to 106.63 mb/d in the March estimates.