While the European Union is set to implement its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026—penalizing imports with a high carbon footprint—Morocco appears more prepared than ever. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Kingdom’s integration into the European carbon market could generate up to $8 billion in revenue by 2030, which would represent 3% of the national GDP.
This potential windfall is due to the significantly lower cost of carbon reduction in Morocco compared to the European Union. In other words, Moroccan industries could sell their surplus carbon quotas to Europe while enhancing the competitiveness of their exports.
A Green Transition That Boosts Growth
In a report published in April 2025, the IMF praises Morocco’s decarbonization strategy, supported by the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The institution views this as a major catalyst for the energy transition, demonstrating that it can stimulate economic growth rather than hinder it. Simulations conducted using a global macroeconomic model show that a rise in taxes on coal and oil, combined with the gradual removal of butane subsidies, could reduce emissions by 16% while increasing GDP by 0.8% by 2030.
The IMF estimates that a moderate carbon tax of between $36 and $82 per ton of CO₂ would be sufficient to align Morocco with its climate objectives without significantly impacting growth. However, this would require the revenues to be equitably redistributed to support purchasing power and ensure a just transition.
A Model of Consistency and Climate Governance
According to the report, Morocco stands out due to a systemic approach where fiscal policy, energy strategy, and financial regulation converge towards a common goal: sustainability. This coherence enhances investor confidence and lends credibility to the Kingdom’s climate strategy internationally.
Under the guidance of Bank Al-Maghrib and regulators AMMC, ACAPS, and TAMWILCOM, the country is establishing a national climate finance strategy with a 2030 horizon. Starting in 2027, banks will be required to disclose their climate exposures according to international standards (ISSB), while the private sector is expected to contribute 50% of the financing for the transition, equating to approximately $4.5 billion annually.
Meanwhile, the market for green bonds is gaining traction, although their issuance remains modest—around 4 billion dirhams from 2012 to 2023, according to Amundi-IFC.
A Strategic Climate Partner for Europe
By aligning with the trajectory of the European Emissions Trading System, Morocco aims to become a key climate partner for the European Union. This integration would partially neutralize the effects of the CBAM while opening up a carbon market for the Kingdom estimated to be worth several billion dollars.
For the IMF, the Moroccan example illustrates the possibility of a development model that reconciles economic stability and environmental sustainability. This unique path confirms that, for the Kingdom, greening growth is not a hindrance, but a driving force.
