Morocco is sinking into an unprecedented water crisis. An international report published by the American Drought Mitigation Center, within the framework of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, sounds the alarm: if nothing changes, the Kingdom could face an extreme water shortage by 2050. This concerning outlook necessitates urgent strategic choices for the country’s future.
An Increasingly Arid Climate
Already grappling with six consecutive years of drought, Morocco sees indicators turning red. Rainfall is becoming increasingly scarce, and temperatures are reaching record highs. January 2024 recorded unprecedented heat spikes of up to 37°C, accompanied by a rainfall deficit of 57%. As a result, reservoirs are nearly dry, with an average filling rate dropped to 25%, and the level of the Al Massira dam – the second largest in the country – fluctuates between 1% and 2%.
This aridity has led to drastic measures: bans on car washing, partial closures of traditional baths, and prohibitions on garden watering. Such restrictions could become the norm if the situation continues to deteriorate.
Agriculture on the Front Line
The agricultural sector, which employs about 35% of the workforce, is among the hardest hit. The drought affects not only crops but also livestock. In 2023, just before Eid al-Adha, meat prices surged, prompting the government to quintuple livestock imports and suspend import duties. By April 2024, agricultural production had already fallen by 20%, and EU forecasts estimated a 30% decrease in wheat and barley yields. The number of sheep has dropped by 38% since 2016.
Towards Desalination Dependency
To address the crisis, Morocco is now heavily investing in seawater desalination. No fewer than 11 new plants are planned between 2024 and 2025, in addition to 23 mobile units already in operation. However, this strategy comes with a cost: the Kingdom imports 90% of its energy needs, making this solution structurally fragile in the long term.
Meanwhile, the government is experimenting with alternative methods, such as cloud seeding, which reportedly increased precipitation by 4% and improved agricultural yields by 20% during the 2021-2023 period.
The Time for Choices
With 645 m³ of water available per person per year, Morocco is already well below the global water stress threshold. By 2050, this figure could fall to 500 m³, pushing the country into the category of nations facing extreme water scarcity. For comparison, some water-rich countries exceed 10,000 m³ per person.
In light of this alarming trajectory, the international report calls for urgent adaptation measures: improved governance, early warning systems, wastewater reuse, citizen involvement, and regional cooperation. Morocco stands at a crossroads. Adapt or endure. Act or dry up.
The challenge is immense, but it is not out of reach—provided that mobilization meets the stakes.