Green hydrogen is attracting investment, fueling climate strategies, and captivating industries. However, on the ground, projects are progressing slower than announcements suggest. The reason lies in a very concrete blockage: investors want to produce, while potential buyers are hesitant to sign contracts. As a result, a promising sector remains stuck in a gray area, caught between ambition and execution.
A Policy Brief published in January 2026 by Gi2 Conseil et Ingénierie highlights this impasse, which is described as an “industrial paradox.” In this equation, no one wants to take the first step: without firm purchase commitments, projects cannot secure financing; without real production or ready infrastructure, industrialists refuse to secure their supplies.
A vicious circle that delays investment decisions
Green hydrogen requires heavy, long-term, and risky investments: electrolyzers, electrical connections, water, storage, transport, port logistics… However, these infrastructures cannot be built based on intent alone.
At the same time, offtakers—airlines, shipping companies, steelmakers, chemists—are seeking guarantees on prices, volumes, and quality before making commitments. As long as these parameters remain unclear, they prefer to wait. This mutual waiting is what is freezing the market.
Gi2 emphasizes that the central issue is no longer technological, but financial and contractual: who bears the startup risk, and how to share it.
Revised global targets
This blockage is already starting to weigh on projections. Global production estimates for green hydrogen by 2030 have been revised downwards, now around 37 million tons per year, a reduction of about 25% from previous forecasts, according to data cited in the analysis.
For Gi2, without public mechanisms capable of securing demand or cushioning uncertainty, the slowdown could persist. The market is still too young to function solely on promises of future competitiveness.
Morocco, a unique case with a “natural buyer”
In this hesitant landscape, Morocco stands out with a unique profile. The study highlights a rare advantage: the existence of a domestic industrial demand capable of absorbing significant volumes from the initial phases, notably in the form of ammonia.
The OCP appears to be the key element in this equation. Its current consumption of grey ammonia is around one million tons per year, with potential rising to three million tons. This base demand can serve as a cornerstone for the sector, where other countries with strong renewable potential must rely almost exclusively on exports.
This presence of a credible local outlet explains, according to Gi2, the increasing interest from international consortiums, with declared capacities that would already exceed initial projections of around 80 GW of electrolysis.
Europe and regulated markets: demand that cannot recede
Beyond the Moroccan market, Gi2 emphasizes another driver: demand from regulated markets, deemed more robust than voluntary commitments.
In aviation, the European ReFuelEU Aviation regulation mandates a trajectory for sustainable fuels: 2% by 2025, 20% by 2035, 70% by 2050. This obligation is gradually transforming airlines into structural buyers of synthetic fuels and hydrogen-derived molecules.
A similar logic applies in shipping, where regulatory pressures and decarbonization strategies among major players are pushing towards fuels such as ammonia or e-methanol. Heavy industries are also being driven by increasing constraints, making green hydrogen less optional in certain processes.
Without a strategic state, no take-off
To break the deadlock between production and demand, Gi2 believes that public intervention is crucial. The hydrogen sector is not a “classic” market: it requires simultaneous coordination of infrastructure, regulations, financing, and outlets.
In Morocco, this coordination relies on several actors: MASEN for strategic management, ONEE for network integration, the Ministry of Energy for the regulatory framework, CDG and AMDIE for financial support and attractiveness, as well as IRESEN for innovation and applied research. This organization is described as a “Moroccan Offer,” designed to structure a complete value chain.
Long-term contracts and public mechanisms: tools to unlock the machine
One decisive point remains: bankability. Gi2 cites models capable of reassuring both parties.
The German program H₂Global is presented as an example: in July 2024, a ten-year contract for 259,000 tons of green ammonia secured price and volume over time, making the project financeable.
The Policy Brief also mentions Contracts for Difference (CfD), designed to stabilize price signals and absorb part of the market fluctuations. The goal is to enable investors to proceed despite uncertainty, until the sector matures.
With Le360