Since January 1, 2026, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has come fully into effect, introducing a new tax on several products imported into the community. After three years of a transitional phase, during which companies mainly had to report their emissions without direct financial impact, this framework is now a crucial element in trade relations between the EU and its partners. For Morocco, which is closely linked to the European market, this new rule could affect the competitiveness of several exporting sectors while accelerating the energy and industrial transition.
Brussels’ stated objective is to correct what it sees as a competitive imbalance. European industries, subject to the emissions trading system, bear a carbon cost that their foreign competitors do not always assume. The mechanism aims to align the environmental cost of imports with that paid within the Union, to avoid “carbon leakage” strategies and to preserve European industry.
Initially, the mechanism primarily concerned raw materials known for their high emissions, including steel, aluminum, and cement. Starting in 2026, it has been expanded to include manufactured products with high levels of these materials, to prevent circumvention by importing finished goods instead of basic inputs. However, some adjustments have been introduced under political and social pressure. Fertilizers, although included in the mechanism’s scope, receive a more lenient treatment, with a symbolic increase of 1% applied to the reference values used to calculate emissions.
Operationally, European importers must now acquire carbon certificates, the price of which is indexed to that of the European carbon market. The amount depends on the actual carbon content of the imported products. An important provision states that any carbon tax already paid in the country of origin can be deducted, encouraging the EU’s trading partners to establish their own national carbon pricing mechanisms.
For Morocco, this development represents a significant change. During the period from 2023 to 2025, Moroccan exporters were mainly required to measure and report emissions related to their products. Now, the cost of carbon, even if initially borne by European importers, risks being passed on to Moroccan suppliers or integrated into the final price, potentially weakening their position in a highly competitive market.
The sectors most exposed are those directly affected by the mechanism and that export large volumes to Europe. These include cement, electricity, fertilizers, iron and steel, aluminum, and more recently, hydrogen. The expansion to manufactured products with high steel and aluminum content further broadens the scope of potentially affected activities. A cited study estimates that more than 10% of Moroccan exports could be impacted as early as 2026, with a theoretical risk of revenue loss estimated at nearly 6 billion dirhams.
In light of this new constraint, Moroccan authorities have initiated several strategic projects. The idea put forward for several years is to not see the European mechanism solely as a trade barrier, but as a structuring signal to reposition “Made in Morocco” in a market increasingly sensitive to environmental criteria. In this context, the government plans to introduce, starting January 2026, a national carbon tax targeting the most emitting industries. The objective is to locally capture carbon-related revenues, preventing them from being entirely collected by the European Union, and allowing Moroccan companies to deduct this tax from the amounts required at the European borders.
This strategy is set against a backdrop where Morocco seeks to strengthen its edge in renewable energies. The Kingdom aims for a 52% share of renewable energy in its electricity mix by 2030, through significant projects and a legal framework allowing private actors to produce and market green electricity. This direction could help reduce the carbon footprint of national industry and improve export competitiveness in the European market.
To support this transition, programs have been launched to encourage the use of renewables and to strengthen the capacity for measuring and certifying emissions. However, several obstacles remain, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises. The costs associated with carbon audits, certifications, and technological investments are likely to be high, while access to bank financing remains a hurdle. Economic stakeholders warn of the risk of exclusion from the European market for companies that do not receive adequate support.
Beyond the immediate difficulties, the European mechanism is also seen as an opportunity in the medium term. Morocco’s ability to reconcile economic competitiveness with ecological transition could become a strategic asset in international trade. According to some estimates, a successful integration into the carbon market could generate significant revenues by 2030, provided that the country accelerates its energy and industrial transition faster than its competitors.