By 2026, Morocco will need to adapt its industry to the requirements of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) imposed by the European Union. This new tax regulation on imports aims to penalize CO₂-emitting industries, thereby encouraging exporters to accelerate their energy transition.
While this mechanism represents a major challenge, it also presents an opportunity to modernize the Moroccan industry and strengthen its competitiveness in the European market.
A major economic risk for Moroccan exports
Morocco exports over 60% of its products to the European Union, particularly in key sectors such as automotive, phosphates, cement, aluminum, and electricity. However, with an energy mix still dominated by coal (37% in 2023), the Moroccan industry could face heavy taxation if no adaptation is undertaken.
According to Ali Amrani, a renewable energy expert, the financial impact of this tax could exceed one billion dollars per year. Among the most exposed sectors are:
– The OCP Group, a leader in phosphates and fertilizers, with a carbon bill estimated at 425 million dollars per year in the absence of a transition to green ammonia.
– The cement industry, which must accelerate the adoption of biomass and carbon capture technologies to reduce its carbon footprint.
– The steel and aluminum industries, required to electrify their production processes and increase their use of renewable energy.
– The automotive sector, which has so far been spared in the first phase of the CBAM but could be indirectly affected by rising raw material costs.
A national plan for an accelerated energy transition
In response to this threat, Morocco is implementing an ambitious decarbonization strategy aimed at reducing domestic emissions while ensuring the competitiveness of exports.
The Kingdom has set the following objectives:
✅ 52% renewable energy by 2030 and 70% by 2040
✅ A massive deployment of 1,500 MW of new solar, wind, and hydraulic capacities each year
✅ Colossal investments: 13 billion dollars for green hydrogen at OCP, electrification and recycling in the steel industry, and adoption of alternative fuels in cement production
At the same time, Morocco plans to establish a national carbon market by 2026 to mitigate the impact of the CBAM on its exporters. This is an essential measure to align Moroccan regulation with that of the EU.
Towards a new industrial and energy infrastructure
To succeed in this transition, the country must modernize its emissions monitoring system by implementing an MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification) system by the end of 2025. This system will allow for precise measurement of the carbon footprint of Moroccan exports and optimize their compliance with European standards.
According to Ali Amrani, it is also essential to:
– Strengthen energy infrastructures to supply industries with green electricity
– Invest in decarbonized transport, as the carbon footprint of exports also depends on logistics and transport to ports
– Create a government task force ‘CBAM 2026’, involving the ministries of Industry, Energy, Environment, and Finance, to coordinate this transformation
A colossal financial challenge, but profitable in the long term
While inaction could cost over one billion dollars per year, the investments required for this transition are also immense.
📌 Proposed sources of funding:
💰 2.5 billion $ through green bonds
💰 3 billion $ in support from the EIB and the World Bank
💰 4 to 5 billion $ in private investments
💰 1.5 billion $ in European climate grants
Projections show that these efforts could avoid up to 15 billion $ in CBAM taxes by 2030, while creating 300,000 green jobs and generating an annual GDP growth of 3%.
A decisive turning point for the Moroccan industry
Adapting to the CBAM is an absolute necessity to preserve the competitiveness of Moroccan industries in the European market. While this transition represents an immediate cost, it could also position Morocco as a leading African player in decarbonized industry.
The question is no longer whether Morocco should adapt, but how and at what speed.