Morocco is emerging as one of the most competitive players in European supply of green ammonia and hydrogen derived from renewable sources, alongside the United Arab Emirates and the United States, according to a German academic study focused on clean energy supply chains. With particularly low production costs backed by high solar and wind potential, the Kingdom is poised to be a key supplier by 2030 and 2040.
The study, highlighted by the specialized site Attaqa, emphasizes that green ammonia is “a strategic vector for clean energy supply chains, serving both as an industrial product and a transport medium for hydrogen.” It underscores Morocco’s capacity to meet a significant share of European demand, in a context marked by accelerated decarbonization policies and the quest for low-carbon energy sources.
A Comparative Advantage Based on Costs and Renewable Resources
According to the authors, Morocco enjoys a structural comparative advantage, particularly for exporting gaseous and liquefied hydrogen to the European Union. This advantage is based on “a high potential for photovoltaic solar energy and onshore wind energy, allowing continuous coverage of European demand at among the lowest costs.” By 2040, the costs of importing gaseous hydrogen from Morocco are expected to decrease by approximately 15%, driven by the combined effect of falling electricity, battery, and electrolyzer prices.
Beyond hydrogen, ammonia produced from renewable sources also bolsters Morocco’s position among the most competitive exporters. The study notes that “the best-performing ammonia suppliers will directly benefit from the anticipated drop in costs for renewable energy and conversion technologies,” thereby enhancing the economic viability of this sector in the medium to long term.
End-to-End Supply Chain Analysis
The report offers a detailed techno-economic analysis covering the entire value chain, from renewable electricity production in ten candidate export countries— including Morocco— to European consumption sites. The researchers present their approach as “the first methodology to coherently calculate costs from international production sites to local consumers.”
Two complementary models are employed: a “well-to-gate” model incorporating production and international transport of green ammonia and hydrogen, and a “gate-to-consumer” model that takes into account final demand and internal distribution distances in Europe. In this context, gaseous hydrogen remains the most economical option for European imports in both 2030 and 2040, giving strategic importance to pipeline infrastructures.
Green Ammonia: An Industrial Raw Material and a Transition Vector
While gaseous hydrogen is critical for certain uses, green ammonia maintains a central role in the energy transition. The authors remind us that it is both an essential industrial raw material and a major lever for decarbonization, capable of “substantially reducing carbon emissions linked to current and future ammonia demand.” They do, however, call for “a rigorous trade-off between short-term infrastructure investments and the risk of cracking facilities becoming underutilized in the long term.”
Economically, ammonia still holds a cost advantage over liquefied hydrogen, although this gap is narrowing. The study indicates that “the price advantage of ammonia is expected to decrease from 16% in 2030 to about 10% in 2040,” due to technological advancements in hydrogen liquefaction and transport. Import prices for ammonia are also expected to decline by about 13%, driven by falling costs of electricity, electrolyzers, and transformation processes.
Morocco, a Key Player in a Changing European Market
Consumer preferences vary by use. Industrial users of ammonia prefer direct imports, seen as more competitive, while large hydrogen consumers favor national and cross-border pipelines. Smaller volumes resort to liquefied hydrogen, with marginal use of ammonia as an intermediary vector.
By 2040, however, the role of ammonia as a mere transport medium for hydrogen may diminish, exposing certain investments to the risk of underutilized assets. Despite this caveat, the study clearly identifies Morocco as a strategic pillar in European energy supply, capable of combining economic competitiveness, availability of renewable resources, and geographical proximity to consumption markets in an era of accelerated energy transition.
With Barlamane